Effects of global climate change on agriculture: an interpretative review
Authore(s) : Richard M. Adams || Department of Agricultural and Resource EconomicsOregon State UniversityCorvallisOregon 97331USA.
Volume : (13), Issue : 205, May - 2018
Abstract : Climate is the primary determinant of agricultural productivity. Concern over the potential effects of long-term climatic change on agriculture has motivated a substantial body of research over the past decade. This body of research addresses possible physical effects of climatic change on agriculture, such as changes in crop and livestock yields, as well as the economic consequences of these potential yield changes. This paper reviews the extant literature on these physical and economic effects and interprets this research in terms of common themes or findings. Of particular interest are findings concerning the role of human adaptations in responding to climate change, possible regional impacts to agricultural systems and potential changes in patterns of food production and prices. Limitations and sensitivities of these findings are discussed and key areas of uncertainty are highlighted. Finally, some speculations regarding issues of potential importance in interpreting and using information on climate change and agriculture are presented.
Keywords :Climate change · Agriculture · Economic consequences · Regional effects · Adaptations · Uncertainty.
Article: Download PDF Journal DOI : 301/704
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global climate change on agriculture
Vol.I (13), Issue.I 205
Article No : 10039
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References :
Adams RM (1986) Agriculture, forestry and related benefits of air pollution control. Am J Agric Econ 68:885 – 894
Adams RM, Glyer JD, McCarl BA, Dudek DJ (1988) The implications of global change for western agriculture. West J Agric Econ 13:348 – 356
Adams RM, Rosenzweig C, Ritchie J, Peart R, Glyer J, McCarl B, Curry B, Jones J (1990) Global climate change and U.S. agriculture. Nature 345:219... More
- Adams RM (1986) Agriculture, forestry and related benefits of air pollution control. Am J Agric Econ 68:885 – 894
- Adams RM, Glyer JD, McCarl BA, Dudek DJ (1988) The implications of global change for western agriculture. West J Agric Econ 13:348 – 356
- Adams RM, Rosenzweig C, Ritchie J, Peart R, Glyer J, McCarl B, Curry B, Jones J (1990) Global climate change and U.S. agriculture. Nature 345:219 –224
- Adams RM, Fleming RA, Chang CC, McCarl BA, Rosenzweig C (1995) A reassessment of the economic effects of global climate change on U.S. agriculture. Clim Change 30:147–167
- Adams RM, McCarl BA, Segerson K, Rosenzweig C, Bryant KJ, Dixon BL, Conner R, Evenson RE, Ojima D (1998) The economic effects of climate change on U.S. agriculture, Chap 2. In: Mendelsohn R, Neumann J (eds) The economics of climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cam- bridge (in press).
- Allen LH Jr, Boote KJ, Jones JW, Jones PH, Valle RR, Acock B, Rogers HH, Dahlman RC (1987) Response of vegetation to rising carbon dioxide: photosynthesis, biomass and seed yield of soybean. Global Biogeochem Cycles 1:1–14.
- Alston JM, Norton GW, Pardey PG (1995) Science under scarcity: principles and practice for agricultural research evaluation and priority setting. Cornell University Press, Ithaca, NY.
- Antle JM (1987) Econometric estimation of producers’ risk attitudes. Am J Agric Econ 69(3):509 – 522.
- Baethgen WE (1994) Impact of climate change on barley in Uruguay: yield changes and analysis of nitrogen management systems. In: Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A (eds) Implications of climate change for international agriculture: crop modeling study. EPA 230-B-94-003. U.S. EPA Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation, Climate Change Division, Adaptation Branch, Washington, DC, p 1–13.
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- Crosson P, Anderson JR (1994) Demand and supply trends in global agriculture. Food Policy 19:105 –119.
- Cure JD, Acock B (1986) Crop responses to carbon dioxide doubling: a literature survey. Agric For Meteorol 38:127–145.
- Darwin R, Tsigas M, Lewandrowski J, Raneses A (1995) World agriculture and climate change: economic adaptations. Agricultural Economic Report No. 703. Natural Resources and Environmental Division, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC.
- de Siqueira OJF, Boucas Farias JR, Aguiar Sans LM (1994) Potential effects of global climate change for Brazilian agriculture: applied simulation studies for wheat, maize and soybeans. In: Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A (eds) Implications of climate change for international agriculture: crop modeling study. EPA 230-B-94-003. U.S. EPA, Washing- ton, DC
- Dillon JD, Anderson JR (1990) The analysis of response in crop and livestock production, 3rd edn. Pergamon Press, Oxford.
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- Hall D (1997) Impacts of global warming on agriculture. Proceedings, International Association of Agricultural Economists biannual meeting, Sacramento, CA, August 3 – 7.
- Hanson JD, Baker BB, Bourdon RM (1993) Comparison of the effects of different climate change scenarios on rangeland livestock production. Agric Syst 41:487– 502.
- Hurd BH (1994) Yield response and production risk: an analy- sis of integrated pest management in cotton. J Agric Resour Econ 19(2):313 – 326.
- IPCC (1996) Climate Change 1995: The IPCC second assessment report, Vol 2, Scientific-technical analyses of im-pacts, adaptations, and mitigation of climate change, Chaps 13 and 23. In: Watson RT, Zinyowera MC, Moss RH (eds) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 427– 467, 745 – 771.
- Kaiser HM, Riha SJ, Wilks DS, Rossier DG, Sampath R (1993) A farm-level analysis of economic and agronomic impacts of gradual warming. Am J Agric Econ 75:387– 398.
- Kane S, Reilly J, Tobey J (1992) An empirical study of the economic effects of climate change on world agriculture. Clim Change 21:17– 35.
- Kimball BA (1983) Carbon dioxide and agricultural yields: an assemblage and analyses of 430 prior observations. Agron J 75:779 – 788.
- Liverman D, O’Brien KL (1991) Global warming and climate change in Mexico. Global Environ Change 1:351– 363.
- Magrin GO, Travasso MI, Rodriguez GR, Boullon R (in press) Climate change: vulnerability and adaptation of Argentina’s crop production. Proceedings of the Conference on National Assessments: Impacts and Responses, March 25 –28, San Jose, Costa Rica.
- Mendelsohn R, Nordhaus WD, Shaw D (1994) The impact of global warming on agriculture: a Ricardian analysis. Am Econ Rev 84(4):753 – 771.
- OTA (Office of Technology Assessment) (1993) Preparing for an uncertain climate. U.S. Congress, Washington, DC.
- Pope RD (1982) Empirical estimation and use of risk preferences: an appraisal of estimation methods that use actual economic decisions. Am J Agric Econ 63(1):161–163.
- Reilly J, Hohmann N (1993) Climate change and agriculture:the role of international trade. Am Econ Assoc Pap Proc 83:306 – 312.
- Reilly J, Hohmann N, Kane S (1994) Climate change and agricultural trade. Global Environ Change 4(1):24 – 36.
- Ritchie J, Singh U, Goodwin D, Hunt L (1989) A user’s guide to CERES – Maize v2.10. Michigan State University– IFDC – IBSNAT, Muscle Shoals, AL.
- Rosenberg NJ (1992) Adaptation of agriculture to climate change. Clim Change 21:385- 405.
- Rosenzweig C, Hillel D (1995) Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and world food supply. Consequences Summer:24 – 32.
- Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A (eds) (1994) Implications of climate change for international agriculture: crop modeling study. EPA 230-B-94-003. U.S. EPA Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation, Climate Change Division, Adaptation Branch, Washington, DC.
- Rosenzweig C, Parry ML (1994) Potential impact of climate change on world food supply. Nature 367:133 –138.
- Rosenzweig C, Parry ML, Fischer G (1995) World food supply.In: Strzepek KM, Smith JB (eds) As climate changes: inter- national impacts and implications. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 27– 56.
- Sala OE, Paruelo JM (1994) Impacts of global climate change on maize production in Argentina. In: Rosenzweig C, Igle- sias A (eds) Implications of climate change for international agriculture: crop modeling study. EPA 230-B-94-.
- U.S. EPA Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation, Climate Change Division, Adaptation Branch, Washing- ton, DC, p 1– 7.
- Scheraga JD, Leary NA, Goettle RJ, Jorgenson DW, Wilcoxen PJ (1993) Macroeconomic modeling and the assessment of climate change impacts. Costs, impacts and possible benefits of CO2 mitigation. IIASA Collaborative Paper Series, Vol CP-93-2, p 107–132.
- Schimmelpfennig D, Lewandrowski J, Reilly J, Tsigas M, Parry I (1996) Agricultural adaptation to climate change: issues of long run sustainability. Agricultural Economic Report No. 740. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resource and Environment Division Economic Research Service, Washington, DC.
- Segerson K, Dixon B (1998) Climate change and agriculture: the role of farmer adaptation. In: Mendelsohn R, Neumann J (eds) The economic impacts of climate change on the U.S. economy. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (in press).
- Smith JB, Huq S, Lenhart S, Mata LJ, Nemesova I, Toure S (eds) (1996) Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change: a synthesis of results from the U.S. Country Studies Program. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht.
- Sutherst RW, Maywald GF, Skarrate DB (1995) Predicting insect distributions in a changed climate. In: Harrington R, Stork NE (eds) Insects in a changing environment. Academic Press, London, p 59 – 71.
- Waggoner PE (1983) Agriculture and a climate changed by more carbon dioxide. Changing climate. National Academy Press, Washington, DC, p 383 – 418
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- Adams RM (1986) Agriculture, forestry and related benefits of air pollution control. Am J Agric Econ 68:885 – 894
- Adams RM, Glyer JD, McCarl BA, Dudek DJ (1988) The implications of global change for western agriculture. West J Agric Econ 13:348 – 356
- Adams RM, Rosenzweig C, Ritchie J, Peart R, Glyer J, McCarl B, Curry B, Jones J (1990) Global climate change and U.S. agriculture. Nature 345:219 –224
- Adams RM, Fleming RA, Chang CC, McCarl BA, Rosenzweig C (1995) A reassessment of the economic effects of global climate change on U.S. agriculture. Clim Change 30:147–167
- Adams RM, McCarl BA, Segerson K, Rosenzweig C, Bryant KJ, Dixon BL, Conner R, Evenson RE, Ojima D (1998) The economic effects of climate change on U.S. agriculture, Chap 2. In: Mendelsohn R, Neumann J (eds) The economics of climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cam- bridge (in press).
- Allen LH Jr, Boote KJ, Jones JW, Jones PH, Valle RR, Acock B, Rogers HH, Dahlman RC (1987) Response of vegetation to rising carbon dioxide: photosynthesis, biomass and seed yield of soybean. Global Biogeochem Cycles 1:1–14.
- Alston JM, Norton GW, Pardey PG (1995) Science under scarcity: principles and practice for agricultural research evaluation and priority setting. Cornell University Press, Ithaca, NY.
- Antle JM (1987) Econometric estimation of producers’ risk attitudes. Am J Agric Econ 69(3):509 – 522.
- Baethgen WE (1994) Impact of climate change on barley in Uruguay: yield changes and analysis of nitrogen management systems. In: Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A (eds) Implications of climate change for international agriculture: crop modeling study. EPA 230-B-94-003. U.S. EPA Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation, Climate Change Division, Adaptation Branch, Washington, DC, p 1–13.
- CAST (Council for Agricultural Science and Technology) (1992) Preparing U.S. agriculture for global climate change. Task Force Report No. 119. Council for Agricultural Science and Technology, Ames, IA.
- CNSCG (Comision Nacional Sobre el Cambio Global, Uruguay) (1997) Draft final report. Uruguay climate change country study: assessment of climate change impacts in Uruguay. March. CNSCG, Montevideo.
- Crosson P, Anderson JR (1994) Demand and supply trends in global agriculture. Food Policy 19:105 –119.
- Cure JD, Acock B (1986) Crop responses to carbon dioxide doubling: a literature survey. Agric For Meteorol 38:127–145.
- Darwin R, Tsigas M, Lewandrowski J, Raneses A (1995) World agriculture and climate change: economic adaptations. Agricultural Economic Report No. 703. Natural Resources and Environmental Division, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC.
- de Siqueira OJF, Boucas Farias JR, Aguiar Sans LM (1994) Potential effects of global climate change for Brazilian agriculture: applied simulation studies for wheat, maize and soybeans. In: Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A (eds) Implications of climate change for international agriculture: crop modeling study. EPA 230-B-94-003. U.S. EPA, Washing- ton, DC
- Dillon JD, Anderson JR (1990) The analysis of response in crop and livestock production, 3rd edn. Pergamon Press, Oxford.
- Easterling WE (1996) Adapting North American agriculture to climate change. Agric For Meteorol 80:ix – xi.
- Easterling WE III, Crosson PR, Rosenberg NJ, McKenny MS, Katz LA, Lemon KA (1993) Paper 2. Agricultural impacts of and responses to climate change in the Missouri-Iowa- Nebraska-Kansas (MINK) region. Clim Change 24:23 – 61.
- FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) (1995) The state of food and agriculture 1995. FAO, Rome.
- Hall D (1997) Impacts of global warming on agriculture. Proceedings, International Association of Agricultural Economists biannual meeting, Sacramento, CA, August 3 – 7.
- Hanson JD, Baker BB, Bourdon RM (1993) Comparison of the effects of different climate change scenarios on rangeland livestock production. Agric Syst 41:487– 502.
- Hurd BH (1994) Yield response and production risk: an analy- sis of integrated pest management in cotton. J Agric Resour Econ 19(2):313 – 326.
- IPCC (1996) Climate Change 1995: The IPCC second assessment report, Vol 2, Scientific-technical analyses of im-pacts, adaptations, and mitigation of climate change, Chaps 13 and 23. In: Watson RT, Zinyowera MC, Moss RH (eds) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 427– 467, 745 – 771.
- Kaiser HM, Riha SJ, Wilks DS, Rossier DG, Sampath R (1993) A farm-level analysis of economic and agronomic impacts of gradual warming. Am J Agric Econ 75:387– 398.
- Kane S, Reilly J, Tobey J (1992) An empirical study of the economic effects of climate change on world agriculture. Clim Change 21:17– 35.
- Kimball BA (1983) Carbon dioxide and agricultural yields: an assemblage and analyses of 430 prior observations. Agron J 75:779 – 788.
- Liverman D, O’Brien KL (1991) Global warming and climate change in Mexico. Global Environ Change 1:351– 363.
- Magrin GO, Travasso MI, Rodriguez GR, Boullon R (in press) Climate change: vulnerability and adaptation of Argentina’s crop production. Proceedings of the Conference on National Assessments: Impacts and Responses, March 25 –28, San Jose, Costa Rica.
- Mendelsohn R, Nordhaus WD, Shaw D (1994) The impact of global warming on agriculture: a Ricardian analysis. Am Econ Rev 84(4):753 – 771.
- OTA (Office of Technology Assessment) (1993) Preparing for an uncertain climate. U.S. Congress, Washington, DC.
- Pope RD (1982) Empirical estimation and use of risk preferences: an appraisal of estimation methods that use actual economic decisions. Am J Agric Econ 63(1):161–163.
- Reilly J, Hohmann N (1993) Climate change and agriculture:the role of international trade. Am Econ Assoc Pap Proc 83:306 – 312.
- Reilly J, Hohmann N, Kane S (1994) Climate change and agricultural trade. Global Environ Change 4(1):24 – 36.
- Ritchie J, Singh U, Goodwin D, Hunt L (1989) A user’s guide to CERES – Maize v2.10. Michigan State University– IFDC – IBSNAT, Muscle Shoals, AL.
- Rosenberg NJ (1992) Adaptation of agriculture to climate change. Clim Change 21:385- 405.
- Rosenzweig C, Hillel D (1995) Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and world food supply. Consequences Summer:24 – 32.
- Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A (eds) (1994) Implications of climate change for international agriculture: crop modeling study. EPA 230-B-94-003. U.S. EPA Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation, Climate Change Division, Adaptation Branch, Washington, DC.
- Rosenzweig C, Parry ML (1994) Potential impact of climate change on world food supply. Nature 367:133 –138.
- Rosenzweig C, Parry ML, Fischer G (1995) World food supply.In: Strzepek KM, Smith JB (eds) As climate changes: inter- national impacts and implications. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 27– 56.
- Sala OE, Paruelo JM (1994) Impacts of global climate change on maize production in Argentina. In: Rosenzweig C, Igle- sias A (eds) Implications of climate change for international agriculture: crop modeling study. EPA 230-B-94-.
- U.S. EPA Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation, Climate Change Division, Adaptation Branch, Washing- ton, DC, p 1– 7.
- Scheraga JD, Leary NA, Goettle RJ, Jorgenson DW, Wilcoxen PJ (1993) Macroeconomic modeling and the assessment of climate change impacts. Costs, impacts and possible benefits of CO2 mitigation. IIASA Collaborative Paper Series, Vol CP-93-2, p 107–132.
- Schimmelpfennig D, Lewandrowski J, Reilly J, Tsigas M, Parry I (1996) Agricultural adaptation to climate change: issues of long run sustainability. Agricultural Economic Report No. 740. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resource and Environment Division Economic Research Service, Washington, DC.
- Segerson K, Dixon B (1998) Climate change and agriculture: the role of farmer adaptation. In: Mendelsohn R, Neumann J (eds) The economic impacts of climate change on the U.S. economy. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (in press).
- Smith JB, Huq S, Lenhart S, Mata LJ, Nemesova I, Toure S (eds) (1996) Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change: a synthesis of results from the U.S. Country Studies Program. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht.
- Sutherst RW, Maywald GF, Skarrate DB (1995) Predicting insect distributions in a changed climate. In: Harrington R, Stork NE (eds) Insects in a changing environment. Academic Press, London, p 59 – 71.
- Waggoner PE (1983) Agriculture and a climate changed by more carbon dioxide. Changing climate. National Academy Press, Washington, DC, p 383 – 418